The situation in the crypto market looks a bit paradoxical. On the one hand, Bitcoin is seemingly near its all-time high. And now, in theory, it should be crypto summer. But the current market situation doesn't feel like crypto summer. Over the past 10 months, there has been only one moderate upward movement, the profitability of which was negated by very long sideways trends. Therefore, the situation feels more like stagnation than growth. And things have been quite bad with altcoins. Many of them are already approximately at the level of their last bottom. Even Ethereum is close to its previous bottom. Panic sentiments are spreading on the internet, that this may already be the end of the bull market. Well, if Bitcoin has somewhere to fall, then altcoins have nowhere to fall, since they are already practically at the bottom. In the apocalyptic scenario, altcoins will have to break through their previous bottom and move even lower to a new bottom. It seems unlikely that Bitcoin will fall while altcoins remain in place, because they are already at the bottom, they will apparently have to break through the bottom and fall even lower.
I think that most likely the bull market will continue for at least another six months. And altseason may still happen. In favor of this judgment, I propose to consider the psychology of the market cycle. The last market bottom, which was in November 2022, felt very strong. The depression was truly profound. At the double top, which formed the peak of the last market - April 2021 and November 2021, strong euphoria was felt. It was the same in all cycles before that. But in this cycle, there has been no euphoria yet. The market is an emotional swing, from depression to euphoria. When analyzing the market, you can consider everything in the context of a four-year cycle, or you can assume that at some point the four-year cycle may stop working. Emotions always work, but it is more difficult to navigate by them. And it is unlikely that you can accurately determine the bottom and the peak. At all the peaks in the cryptocurrency market and in the stock market, I have always felt market overheating, I felt that the growth was coming to an end, but I hoped that there would be one more trend until the end of growth, so that the capital that I managed to accumulate during the bull market would increase to a truly significant size. But this last trend never happened, instead, a bear market began. At the moment, there is no feeling that the market is already overheated, that market growth is already coming to an end. There is also no hope that there may be one more trend before the peak. There is hope for two trends. And emotions instead of euphoria sound something like this: "And what, is this all?"
I think no one can predict the market. The essence of the market is probably to do the opposite of what most people expect from it. If a lot of people strongly expect something, then it will not happen, but the opposite will most likely happen. I have observed this many times. Who knows, maybe you should focus on the mood of most other people. If most are optimistic, then it's probably already the peak, and if pessimistic, then it's probably already the bottom. And if it's about even, then the market is only on its way from the bottom to the peak or vice versa.
