After two months of moving within the range of 90,000 to 110,000, Bitcoin has finally broken out—but not in the expected direction. The breakout was downward. Now the question arises: how strong will this downward movement be?
At the moment, three obvious scenarios can be considered:
- The first scenario – the price will drop slightly to the support level of 70,000 and then reverse upward, continuing the general trend of the bull market. This is the most favorable option.
- The second scenario – the reversal happens at the current level. This is a less preferable outcome, as the short and chaotic market fluctuations over the past two and a half months have made medium-term speculation difficult. If a decline has already begun, it's better for it to continue further.
- The third and worst scenario – a global market reversal downward, with a peak on January 20, 2025. The start of a bear market seems absurd at this moment because a bull market should precede it. However, the last three years haven’t really looked like a bull market. Yes, Bitcoin has grown a bit, but altcoins haven't even been able to surpass their previous highs and have performed weakly. Even Bitcoin’s growth has been unimpressive, barely exceeding its previous peak from the last bull cycle. If we are already in a bear market and the four-year Bitcoin cycle is broken, it would be very disappointing. However, I consider the bear market scenario the least likely. The first two scenarios are more probable, with the first being slightly more likely than the second, in my opinion. However, the difference in probability is not very significant.
There is a chance that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin and altcoins may come to an end, as too many people have become aware of it. Many traders were expecting an altcoin season three months ago, but instead of massive growth, the market behaved in the opposite way—there was a sharp and significant drop in altcoins. The market always tends to do the opposite of what the majority expects. If there is no altseason in this cycle, and the market slowly transitions from one crypto winter to another, it could severely undermine people's trust in altcoins, especially among those who have been in the market for multiple cycles.
As for me, if this happens, I will likely stop dealing with altcoins forever.
Another possibility is that the cycle boundary shifts forward by at least three months. This means the peak of the current market cycle could shift from October 4, 2025, to January 4, 2026, or even further. Many expected significant market growth in the last three months, relying on historical data from the previous cycle. But the market acted in the opposite way, confusing many traders and shaking their confidence in the four-year cycle. Once the majority starts doubting further growth, it will happen—but slightly later, shaking out the weakest market participants before taking off.
