Everyone has probably heard about the crypto winter. Yes, if you carefully and for a long time track the movement of the market, you can see some patterns in the price movement. I decided to define the boundaries of the crypto winter, based on when I historically suffered the greatest losses. The idea was that knowing the boundaries of the crypto winter in the past, and its location in the market cycle, I would be able to determine when, with the greatest probability, I would again have to experience a large number of losing trades in a row and a significant drawdown of capital. Thus, I have a “death zone” on the chart in the future. Now I know when to expect hard times. And I know how much time I have left to prepare for these difficult times. And then it will be morally easier to survive the next crypto winter if you know when it will begin and when it will end. I don't believe that there are people who are engaged in medium-term speculation and always make money, no matter how cool they are. The essence of the crypto winter is not to earn as much as possible, but to save as much capital as possible until the winter is over. People who have not yet had time to survive the crypto winter as speculators do not even imagine how bad things can be on the market. Yes, there is regularly a section on the market where no matter what you do, you will still lose capital. Sharp chaotic movements that resemble a mad grasshopper. Wherever you open, whether up or down, you will still get a stop loss. And so over and over again. Many times in a row. For a very long and painful time. Time will pass, life around will change, a lot will have already happened in the world, but you will still receive unprofitable deals ten in a row, for a very long time. So that you will already completely forget what it is like to receive income on the exchange. Enthusiasm for business will fade as capital sinks. No, this will not be a quick collapse. This will be a very long and gradual drawdown of capital. Many unprofitable trades, like piranhas, will tear off a small piece of your capital. The whole process will be like a medieval torture by time. A person can withstand one blow of fate, even a very strong one. But if there are many blows, even if not very strong, but they will go in a row, and for a very long time, then over time a person will become like a patient exhausted by a chronic infection, who is already in a near-death state, without the will to live. Who has suffered from this disease so much that he just wants to finally die, just so that this suffering stops.
So, when I fully decided on the crypto winter, I had an idea, what if there is a section on the market when, no matter what you do, you will still get income. Of course, I knew about the existence of such sections based on my experience. Thus, I marked on the chart the place where I historically received the highest incomes. And accordingly called this section crypto summer. Crypto summer is the time of the greatest opportunities in the market. The time when everything grows to the maximum. Almost everyone earns. Yes, perhaps there are those who do not earn. But in order to still manage not to earn at this time, you need to have a special, very rare “talent”. Crypto summer is a time when everyone can feel like a professional. And the one who has not yet managed to survive a single crypto winter may even think that he has already caught God by the beard. He will begin to think that he has already been able to understand everything, to see the past and the future. It will seem to him that he already knows exactly how everything will develop for many years to come, in general, for an unlimited period. He will simply figure it out with Elliott waves, and the future will become crystal clear to the smallest detail. Each wave in the most accurate price values, everything will be visible at a glance. And he will think that the knowledge of this great truth is open only to him, well, maybe a few more people on Earth. Towards the end of crypto summer, the weight of the body will already be practically imperceptible. The material body seems to be transformed into pure divine energy. It will seem that just a little more, and the process of transforming the body into pure energy will be completely completed, and then gravity will cease to act and the body will break away from the earth and fly up. And just at this moment, crypto summer suddenly ends. A sharp collapse begins on the market.
The next season I accordingly called crypto autumn. Crypto autumn is characterized by a rapid collapse of the market. If you know how to make money on the decline, then everything is not so bad. Theoretically, it seems like nothing complicated, you just open in the other direction and that's it. But in practice, for some reason, in order to really learn how to do this, you can spend more than ten years on it. There are some reasons that may not allow you to increase capital in a falling market. For example: if you simultaneously with medium-term speculation you will also have long-term investments. Then it turns out that earnings on the decline will be offset by a fall in the price of long-term investments. Also, one of the non-obvious reasons why you can earn significantly less on a fall than on a rise is mathematics. If, for example, you bought bitcoin for 100,000 and sold it for 200,000, then your earnings will be 100%. And if on the contrary, you shorted for 200,000 and closed at the level of 100,000, then your earnings will no longer be 100% as on growth, but only 50%. And given that the cryptocurrency market is inherently an investment market, and the price after a period of growth does not return to its initial positions, then the potential for making money on the decline is much less than half of the potential of a growing market. In general, crypto autumn is terrible for those who do not make money on the decline. It is somewhere neutral for those who, in theory, seem to be able to earn, but in practice do not yet earn, since they do not have sufficient experience to solve problems that prevent their capital from growing. And moderately profitable for professionals.
We still have one season left, this is crypto spring. Crypto spring is part of the growing market in the cycle. It begins after the crypto winter and lasts until the moment of breaking through the maximum of the last cycle. Growth is slower than in crypto summer, with less potential for income. But in terms of its potential profitability, it is in second place after crypto summer. Overall, it's a good time too.
If we briefly describe the main characteristics of all four crypto seasons, we get the following:
1. Crypto summer - the highest potential for generating income. The third longest crypto season.
2. Crypto spring - is in second place in terms of earning opportunities. The second longest crypto season after winter.
3. Crypto autumn - is in third place in terms of profit potential. The shortest season.
4. Crypto winter - brings loss. The longest season.
