Based on my market forecasting model, we are currently in the final phase of growth in this market cycle. Historically, it is at this point in the cycle that the largest price movements occur. On November 6, 2024, Bitcoin broke through the peak of the previous cycle, which was on November 10, 2021, and began to rise rapidly. Many may object and say that the breakout occurred much earlier, namely on March 8, 2024. But, from my point of view, that was not a breakout but a bounce off that level. The price did not show further significant growth, and instead, a prolonged sideways movement formed, lasting 243 days. But finally, Bitcoin emerged from a long period of stagnation and continued its upward movement. I believe that the peak of this market cycle could be in the range from October 4, 2025, to November 16, 2025, plus or minus one month in each direction. But, most likely it will be closer to the date of October 4, 2025. Where did these dates, October 4, 2025, and November 16, 2025, come from? If we measure the distance between the peaks of the last two cycles, namely from December 17, 2017, to November 10, 2021, and then postpone this distance from the peak of November 10, 2021, to the future, we get the date October 4, 2025. And if we measure the distance between the peaks of the two previous cycles, December 4, 2013, and December 17, 2017, and again postpone this distance from the last peak of November 10, 2021, we get the date November 16, 2025. The distance between the dates we received, October 4, 2025, and November 16, 2025, as well as the nearest dates to the left and right, form the range in which the new peak of this cycle will most likely fall. And so we get a range of three and a half months, with the greatest probability that the peak will be as close as possible to October 4, 2025.
As for the level at which the peak of the current market cycle will form, it is more difficult to guess. Based on my model, the peak of the current market cycle will be at approximately $203,000. The bottom of the market is always much easier to determine, since after reaching the peak of the cycle, the price always rolls back approximately the same distance if measured as a percentage. But with the peaks of cycles, it's more difficult. The peaks of past market cycles are not in a straight line. So you can't just draw a trend line through the previous three peaks and determine the price value of the fourth peak. Each subsequent increase as a percentage was less than the previous one. Therefore, you can't just look at how many percent Bitcoin grew in the last cycle and assume that it will grow by the same percentage in the current cycle. To predict price targets for the current cycle, I used a hyperbole. I measured how many percent the price increased in the last two cycles from peak to peak. The resulting values were 1584% and 251%. Using the properties of the hyperbola and these two values, I got the value of 193.33%. That is, I assume that the peak of this market cycle will be higher than the peak of the last market cycle by approximately 193.33%. In terms of price, this will be approximately $203,000.
