Based on my forecasting model, we are currently in the period of "crypto summer". You can read more about crypto seasons in one of my previous posts https://korzhykcapital.com/article/crypto_seasons. There are approximately nine months left until the end of crypto summer. This is very little time, and the market has not yet managed to grow significantly. Therefore, in the next nine months, I no longer expect long sideways movements, lasting six months, similar to the one that occurred in the period from approximately March 14, 2024 to November 6, 2024. There is simply no time left for a prolonged sideways trend. There will be corrections, but I think no more than three months. And more likely even less. The current market situation seems to me like a correction after a moderate upward movement that began on November 6, 2024, with a breakout of the previous cycle's high, which was on November 10, 2021. The uptrend lasted about two months. It is unlikely that the price will roll back to 73,000. Most likely, the next nine months will see growth with small pauses. And there may be two more of these pauses, in addition to the one we are observing now. It is already clear that the price did not follow the scenario of the corresponding period in the last cycle. In the last cycle, there was a strong and prolonged movement at this time. And now we are seeing a moderate movement that has already ended. This is more reminiscent of the situation at the corresponding time in the cycle before last. There is an opinion that the nature of price movement alternates. In the last cycle, there was one powerful movement at this time, which eventually formed a double top. In the cycle before last, crypto summer was formed by four moderate upward movements. If the idea of alternating market cycles is confirmed, then this crypto summer we will not see one super powerful and super long uptrend and a double top at the peak of the market. Instead, we will see a series of about four medium upward movements with small corrections and one sharp peak at the end. It is possible that these corrections will generate about one false signal to open down each. At the moment, this idea is supported by the fact that a large movement has not yet occurred. I think we may be in a correction for 1-1.5 months. And the upward movement may continue until approximately February 10, 2025.
Altseason has not yet begun. I think that the beginning of the altseason can be considered the breakout of the capitalization of altcoins, excluding the TOP 10 cryptocurrencies (OTHERS), of their maximum in the previous cycle. In the last two months, altcoins have made an attempt to overcome their historical maximum. But they were defeated. They fell slightly short of the level of 492 billion capitalization, reversed, and began to correct. I think they will be able to overcome the level of 492 billion with the next wave of Bitcoin growth, which, as I wrote above, may begin around February 10, 2025. And this marks the beginning of the altseason or crypto summer for altcoins.
