In Bitcoin, we are still in a sideways trend. In this crypto season, the nature of Bitcoin's price movement has changed and is very similar to the price movement of stocks with the largest capitalization, such as NVIDIA or Apple. It has become more difficult to profit from medium-term speculation in Bitcoin. The market is becoming less volatile, generating a greater number of false entry signals. On the one hand, it would seem, so what if it is less volatile, you just use more leverage, and this compensates for the lower potential of price movement. If the market is less volatile, then it seems like it should allow you to open with greater leverage. But the problem with a less volatile market is not only that the price moves a shorter distance on trends, but also that a much larger number of false entry signals are generated, which are no longer compensated for by greater leverage. To survive in such conditions, you need to cut losing trades at the root, otherwise, a lot of losing trades can simply eat up all the profits from the few profitable trades. In general, I do not envy people who have just entered the market and are trying their hand at speculation. It was good to do this 8 years ago or at least 4 years ago. People came on the rumors of previous good times, but ended up in a place where a good market does not compensate for the lack of professional skills and qualities. Of course, you can still make money speculating on Bitcoin, but this will be possible for fewer people in percentage terms. And the earning potential is much lower. But still, the cryptocurrency market seems to me much more attractive than the stock market. And so far there is no better place than the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin has hit the $100,000 level and cannot yet overcome it. It is moving in the range of +- $10,000 from the level of $100,000 and is generating unprofitable trades since it cannot properly break through this level and continue moving up. But it also cannot bounce off it and decisively fall down. So far, it is simply stuck at one hundred thousand and is moving sideways. But nothing, we are now in the crypto summer season. And in this season, sideways movements usually do not last more than three months. And even three months is a rather rare phenomenon. Therefore, this sideways trend is unlikely to last longer than March 19, 2025. In the previous post, I suggested that the upward movement could continue until February 10, 2025 (https://korzhykcapital.com/article/bitcoin__when_will_the_growth_continue_and_what_about_altseason).
Many people apparently expected that after Trump's inauguration, Bitcoin would soar upward. But that did not happen. The news writes about various positive events for the world of cryptocurrencies, for example, about the launch of a crypto ETF. But so far, neither Trump nor the crypto ETF has been able to make the market more profitable than it was before these events. The market is still becoming more mature, less volatile, more professional. It feels like more professionals have appeared on the market, and competition has become tougher.
Regarding when the bull market will end, according to my calculations, it will be around the beginning of October this year. In addition, if you are in the market every day, you even begin to feel the mood of the market. At the end of a bull market, there is always a feeling of fatigue from growth. The growth itself is already starting to feel nauseous. Overheating is felt with all your gut. Growth starts to get boring. And you even start to want the price to go down. At the moment, there is nothing like that. There is only dissatisfaction with growth. This means that technical analysis coincides with internal sensations. Therefore, we are waiting for Bitcoin to reach approximately $200,000 in 8 months. And then it will be possible to enjoy a market collapse of indescribable beauty.
